An asteroid come upon in 2024 has been placed at level 3 on the Torino impact scale , with a small hazard of impact with Earth in 2032 .
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial - impact Last Alert System ( ATLAS ) in Chile on December 25 last year . In what could be considered " not the best Christmas present " from the Solar System , observation show that the object has a higher luck of impact with Earth than almost all asteroid we have discovered so far . Before you panic , this will likely modify as more observations of the asteroid are made .
Near - Earth Objects(NEOs ) , in particular NEOs above 140 meters ( 460 feet ) in size , are tracked by NASA and other uranologist and assessed for danger of impact with Earth . As part of this , they are given a " Turin " grade of 0 - 10 , with a score of 0 think of the likelihood of impact is zero or thereabouts , and 10 meaning " a hit is sure , capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may jeopardize the time to come of civilization as we make out it , whether impacting demesne or sea . " These are helpfully color - rag in green , yellow , and red , to clarify the situation to the populace .
Animation of asteroid 2024 YR4’s closest approach to Earth.Image credit: NASA’s Eyes On Asteroids
Until asteroid 2024 YR4 was fall upon , there were a grand total of zero ( 0 ) object with a grievance higher than zero . The object , which is thought to be about 50 metre ( 150 feet ) wide has been put atLevel 3on the Torino scale due to a particularly close plan of attack on December 22 , 2032 . On that day , it is presently prefigure to pop off the Earth at a minimum aloofness of 0.00001 Astronomical Units ( AU ) , with 1 AU being the distance between the Earth and the Sun . That ’s about 1,500 kilometers ( 930 miles ) , which in astronomical terminus is very close indeed , and closer to the Earth thanmany satellites . grant toEarthSky , the asteroid currently has around 1 - in-83 odds of clash with Earth during that advance .
While a little close than is ideal , the object is currently placed at degree 3 on the Torino scale leaf , with watch - up observations look to provide some reassurance .
" A unaired encounter , merit attention by astronomers . Current figuring give a 1 percent or greater fortune of collision capable of localise destruction,“NASA explainsof Level 3 . " Most potential , novel telescopic observance will lead to re - assignment to Level 0 . tending by public and by public official is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away . "
Should the object impact Earth , it would not be a human race - ender due to its relatively small-scale size . However , it is around the sizing of the asteroid responsible for the Tunguska Event , thelargest impact in recorded account , which is call up to have been about 50 to 80 meters ( 160–262 feet ) . bet on where it attain ( if we are unlucky enough to be strike by it ) it could do exchangeable spirit level of devastation .
Over the years of monitoring place objects , astronomers have discovered few object that have wander from that reassuring green zone . However , there have been a couple that made it to pull down 4 ; the highest level of the chickenhearted zone .
" A close encounter , meriting attending by astronomer , " NASA explain of the stratum . " Current calculations give a 1 percent or greater chance of collision equal to of regional devastation . Most probable , new telescopic observations will moderate to re - assignment to Level 0 . Attention by world and by public officials is merited if the clash is less than a decade off . "
One of these objects was 99942 Apophis . After it was first pick up in 2004 , observation place it at level 2 on the Torino weighing machine . However , further observationsin December of that year placed it up to level 4 due to a 1.6 percent chance that the asteroid would hit us in 2029 . Evenfurther observationsruled out a collision in 2029 , as well as in 2036 and 2068 , though they will still be close encounters .
In all likeliness , 2024 YR4 will be downgrade to Level 0 as further observance are made , hopefully long before the close approach in seven years time .
[ H / T : EarthSky ]
Correction 29/1/25 : This clause in the beginning stated , mistakenly , that the asteroid was first notice by the Catalina Sky Survey . This has now been corrected to the Asteroid Terrestrial - shock Last Alert System ( ATLAS ) in Chile .
