An October surprise is any bit of intelligence that breaks right before an election that has the capability to aid make up one’s mind the upshot of the race . Since voter are often swing by these revelations , the right October surprise can drop a losing campaign flop into White House . Although we have n’t seen such a level break this yr , they ’ve profoundly impacted past elections . Here are a few celebrated ones :
1968: LBJ calls off the bombs.
The 1968 race between Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey looked like it would be an electoral rout . Nixon successfully ferret away Southern Democrats who were n’t too smashing on Humphrey ’s support of civil right wing , and liberal Democrats were disgusted with Democratic incumbent Lyndon Johnson ’s handling of the Vietnam War . Furthermore , third - party candidate George Wallace eroded some of the historical popular base that Humphrey would normally have won . recently in the political campaign , Humphrey appeared to be doomed .
Right before the election , though , incumbent Democrat LBJ pulled a whoremonger of his own . On October 31 , 1968 , he announced an contiguous halt to all bombing in North Vietnam . This peaceable move , match with Senator Eugene McCarthy ’s late - October indorsement of Humphrey , unified the popular base and pulled Humphrey even with Nixon in the pate . Although Nixon plainly won the election and had a ready to hand 301 - to-191 majority of the electoral votes , he won the popular vote by just over 500,000 , a much closer tolerance than anyone expect prior to LBJ ’s bombing cessation .
1972: Peace is at hand. Again.
Nixon ’s reelection campaign in 1972 is infamous for give birth to the Watergate break - in and ensuing scandal , but it ’s easy to see why Nixon would have been a bit nervous about his electoral chances . After all , voters elected him on a platform of end the Vietnam War , which was still raging on . Although Nixon was probably go to beat competitor George McGovern anyway , an October surprise certainly did n’t hurt his hazard . Just like four years earlier , this one involved Vietnam . National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger come out at the White House on October 26 and announce to reporters that " peace is at hand" in Vietnam . It was quite an announcement , and apparently not one that Nixon scripted . On White House tapes , he can be heard tell Chief of Staff H.R. Haldeman , " I would n’t have said that . “
The promulgation gave Nixon ’s already stout lead another blow , though , and he ended up winning a landslide victory with almost 61 % of the popular suffrage . You may recall that public security was n’t quite at hand ; the war continued for another two and a half years .
1980: The Iran hostages remain in captivity.
Prior to the 1980 election the yearlong saga of Iran hostage crisis held the state ’s attention . If incumbent Jimmy Carter could somehow get the surety release before elector head to the poll , he ’d gain a serious leg up on rival Ronald Reagan . regrettably for Carter , it did n’t happen . In fact , the Iranian government activity decide the right way before the election that the hostage would n’t be freed until the voting was over , and Reagan won the White House .
This bad news program , coupled with the fact that the hostage were finally free on the day of Reagan ’s inauguration the following January , leads some people to consider that the Reagan camp made some kind of back entrance deal with the Iranian government for secure the election . In getting even for hanging onto the hostages to prevent an October surprisal in Carter ’s favour , the Iranian government would receive weapons from the Reagan administration . Although two congressional investigations found these claim to be groundless , conspiracy theorists importune Reagan cut the deal .
1992: Iran-Contra scandal makes a comeback.
Although it may be unmanageable to recollect now , the 1992 wash was a fair heated up one . Incumbent George H.W. Bush face two challengers , Democrat Bill Clinton and independent Ross Perot , and both seemed able of winning the election . ( Perot may now be little more than a footnote in our minds , but at points in 1992 he in reality take all candidates in internal polls . ) Four Clarence Day before the election , though , the surprise showed up . Caspar Weinberger , who had been Reagan ’s Secretary of Defense , was indict for lying to the autonomous guidance that had investigate the Iran - Contra scandal . Since Bush had served with Weinberger and had so far managed to avoid much of the Iran - Contra taint , this developing seemed to be a blow to his reelection chances . Obviously , it did n’t help , and Clinton won the election handily . Bush gave Weinberger a lame - duck’s egg forgiveness the next calendar month .
2000: George W. Bush takes a tipple.
Any race as tightly contested as the 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush is limit to have an October surprise . In fact , though , this election ’s stunner did n’t break until November . Less than a hebdomad before voters headed to the polls , a Fox News report surfaced that Bush had been catch for beat back under the influence in Maine in 1976 following a nighttime of drunkenness with former Earth tennis champion John Newcombe . Instead of trying to fight back the accusation , Bush confirmed the story and told reporters , " I ’m not proud of that . I made some misunderstanding . I occasionally booze too much , and I did that night . I learned my deterrent example . " And , well , you know the relief .
See also…
Our ScandalousVice PresidentsHowEx - Presidents and Prime MinistersMake Their Money15 Tips from George Washington’sSelf - Help Manual*1800 : The Birth ofNegative Campaigning
